November 1
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Trades:
Trades Taken: 1
Trade Plan
Plan: If you have seen my trade plans recently, you know I have been calling for volatility. It struck yesterday with the market’s biggest red day in over two months. SPY with a selloff right into the 50 ma, right at close yesterday. That was afterhours lows, and we haven’t tested it since. A gap up from those lower levels, the long is obvious on SPY at previous close/50 ma, but is now quite far away thanks to the gap up. Short will be into high of day, curious to see where moving averages are when we open, are they there for protection on the same trade? QQQ low of day, full risk into the 50 ma, which has not tested yet. Again, this is far away. Short, I’m very interested in first test of moving averages, closer than SPY on this.
Result:
October 31
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Trades:
Trades Taken: 1
Trade Plan
Plan: Decent gap down this morning as we hit 9:00. SPY has a well defined range, although it is wide. SPY short has yesterday’s lows, previous close, and moving averages. I’m very interested in this as a first test. For the long, previous range around 574.38 is interesting, although it did test a week ago. I would anticipate a significant move lower if that support doesn’t hold. QQQ short may be wide, the moving averages will be pulled down on the gap down, not sure if previous close will be close enough for protection on that. Will need to gauge that at the open, I like SPY short better right now. QQQ long has multiple levels. Very close to the 20 ma in premarket, then two levels at 490 and 488.
I go for consistency, and try to avoid catalysts as things will move further then they normally do. Playing catalysts=extended risk. Election is just 4 trading days away…..One way I approach this is by sticking to wider levels when volatility is showing it’s hand. Sticking to first targets is even more important. Have to avoid the greed voice and take the first reaction like every other day.
Result: A dip to start the morning, I went with SPY 574 calls for a fantastic first reaction. A steady a deep sell off right into the 50 ma on SPY. The volatility has certainly arrived. Trade safe!
October 30
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Trades Taken: 2
Trade Plan
Plan: A gap up, then steady decline heading into 9:00. A heavy earnings week. QQQ closed above range yesterday continuing its catchup trade. Moving averages on QQQ for a long should be in the cards if we dip. ATH high areas for a short on QQQ around 503 area. SPY, high of day for first short, then reset trade up at ATH if needed. The long isn’t as clean, but low of day and 20 ma is quite interesting with enough speed and distance.
Result: Opening up right under previous close on SPY, I started with SPY 583 puts expecting a move higher. It worked immediately just under previous close for a fantastic first reaction trade. A nice move here. Second trade was on follow through of the short, right into moving averages which is where the plan was to go long. Keep in mind, moving average level on QQQ is moved, because the its a dynamic level, it moves with the action. QQQ 496 calls here with great averaging, getting me green immediately on the pivot for another great first reaction trade right to plan. Two trades, in and out before 10:00 numbers. My kind of day!
October 29
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Trades Taken: 2
Trade Plan
Plan: Slight gap down on SPY, relatively flat for QQQ. I really like the distance on QQQ long this morning into moving averages and gap fill, but we’ll see if we get that distance out of the gate. Short is better on SPY for my liking, but I do really like SPY long into the 20 ma, that also gives some distance. The short is there on SPY as of 9:10, moving averages short with protection of the previous close. Size will be based on distance this morning. Markets (SPY especially) is in a very interesting place right now on the bigger picture. A move down makes sense if we can’t get above moving averages, creating a bit of a bear flag. A blast off also makes sense creating a nice higher low and breaking mini downtrend. Election next week. Looking to be quick quick on trades, volatility should be coming quite soon. I trade clean technical moves, I try to avoid volatility/news/catalysts.
Result: A last minute move up in the markets in last minute of premarket to shake things up a bit. SPY opened right under moving averages, while I liked that short, way too close. I went opposite and took calls with SPY 579 calls on the initial dip near gap, a quick payout, I realized I liked QQQ better and switched. Still green on the quick spy trade, but quite irrelevant.
Second trade was on QQQ 492 calls. Plan on QQQ was 9 ema long into further gap for protection. I executed, added, and paid out nice on first push. Another add at lows for yet another fantastic push. Very clean trade and action this morning.
October 28
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Trades Taken: 2
Trade Plan
Plan: A gap up this morning. For SPY I like a dip into moving averages with protection of previous close. For a short I like 584.50 area into ATH. For QQQ, I like previous close test for a long, reset at moving averages. For a short, Friday’s highs is first level, ATH highs is next. QQQ had a catch up trade last few days, finally nearing a test of ATH while SPY was working in ATH last few weeks.
Result: Starter size on SPY 580 calls on first minute dip towards moving averages. Keep in mind, moving averages are dynamic, not static. They move, hence the word “moving” averages. This starter size worked great with a quick 10% payout on that first move. Love consistent 2-3 minute trades. I hit it again (SPY 580 calls 2nd time) as we broke lows, wanting to average lower into the actual averages, but got out as I didn’t want to sit in this with such a nice first move.
QQQ triggered first level perfectly, this is hindsight. I went with SPY because I liked the protection better out of the gate. I did take QQQ 495 calls twice later in the day on nice extension, getting halfway between levels for my initial position. Two great mini moves here.